CITIC Construction Investment: Sentiment is high but has not peaked yet, and the index accelerated its rise in August
On August 31st, a new research report from CITIC Construction Investment Securities noted that rising expectations for an August Federal Reserve rate cut, anticipated major events in early September, structural economic activity in mid-year reports, and recent developments in the domestic AI industry further fueled surging market sentiment, leading to a surge in incremental capital inflows, particularly from financing funds. In particular, after the sentiment index entered the hyperactive zone, investors who had missed out on opportunities were forced to cover their positions, further accelerating the market's upward trend. In bull markets, the sentiment index often exceeds 90, entering a hyperactive state. How will the market perform thereafter? Historically, there are two potential scenarios for subsequent market movements: one is a reversal after an accelerated peak, indicated by the sentiment index approaching 100 (e.g., July 9-14, 2020, October 8-9, 2024, and November 11-13, 2024); the other is a decline in sentiment, hovering around 90, with the index fluctuating sideways and accumulating momentum for the next phase of growth (e.g., early 2015 and March-April 2019). The current sentiment index is stable and fluctuates narrowly in the range of 95-96. Both subsequent trends are possible. We need to continue observing the market in early September before we can clarify the direction of the next stage.