China Merchants Electronics: SMIC's Q3 25 revenue guidance shows quarter-on-quarter growth, while visibility on Q4 25 inventory preparations is reduced.
SMIC (SMIC) released its unaudited Q2 2025 financial results on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Revenue for Q2 2025 reached US$2.209 billion, a 16.2% year-on-year increase and a 1.7% quarter-on-quarter decrease, exceeding guidance (a 4-6% quarter-on-quarter decline). Gross profit margin reached 20.4%, a 6.5% year-on-year increase and a 2.1% quarter-on-quarter decrease, slightly exceeding guidance (18-20%). China Merchants Securities' electronics team believes that the company's products will continue to be in short supply in Q3 2025, and visibility for Q4 2025 may be reduced. 1) Guidance: Q3 2025 revenue is expected to increase by 5-7% quarter-on-quarter, with both shipments and ASP expected to increase quarter-on-quarter. Gross profit margin is expected to be roughly flat quarter-on-quarter at 18-20%, primarily due to increased output offsetting the impact of increased depreciation. 2) Industry sentiment: Customers pre-ordered and built inventory in the first three quarters, demonstrating strong confidence, and the company's products continued to be in short supply. The pace of rush orders and pre-shipments is expected to slow in Q4, weakening order and performance visibility, but this is not expected to have a significant impact on capacity utilization.