Shenwan Hongyuan Securities released a research report saying that in the first half of 2025, the biggest expectation gap in the global macroeconomy was the falsification of the "American exceptionalism", due to Deepseek moments, Trump's tariff shocks and US fiscal constraints. Under the current tariff level, the baseline assumption of the US economy is "slowing down but not recession", and the upward inflation and downward economic pressure are basically symmetrical. In terms of order, it is recommended to focus on the upward inflation pressure first, and then the downward economic pressure. From the perspective of the macro environment, the United States may have entered a high-incidence stage of "three kills of stocks, bonds and currencies". If the AI wave is no longer a "one-man show" in the United States, the rationality of the high valuation of US technology stocks will be easily challenged. If the "twin deficits" are unsustainable, whether the United States reorganizes its finances or not, the dollar depreciation cycle may continue, and then US bonds will no longer enjoy the excessive "safety premium" under the "exceptionalism" narrative. The positive feedback loop of trade deficit-dollar assets is moving towards its opposite.