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2025.05.01
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2025.04.24
08:07
According to a research report by CITIC Securities, in response to external shocks, the policy makers have recently attached great importance to "expanding and strengthening the domestic circulation" and adopted a policy combination such as expanding the old-for-new subsidy, subsidies for specific groups, and "consumption voucher" policies to boost domestic demand, and pay attention to the aviation, logistics and regional shipping leaders that benefit from the increased domestic demand policies. 1) Aviation: Faced with significantly increased procurement costs, domestic airlines are expected to suspend plans to introduce Boeing aircraft. If it is assumed that Boeing's exit plan is delayed and the cost of purchasing aviation materials increases, it is estimated that the growth rate of aircraft introduction by the three major domestic airlines in 2025 may drop to 1%-2%. Tariff retaliation further restricts the supply of the aviation industry, the ticket price inflection point is approaching, and the decline in international oil prices releases profit space. Pay attention to the aviation layout opportunities before May 1st. 2) Logistics: The expansion of the national subsidy for old-for-new exchanges and potential consumption stimulus policies are expected to be transmitted to the demand side, and cyclical leaders with high category relevance should be selected. 3) Regional container shipping: Looking back at history, proactive fiscal policies are expected to drive the recovery of commodity demand. In 2024, the CR3 of the domestic trade industry will be close to 80%. It is expected that changes in demand will be transmitted to freight rates. At the same time, potential transshipment demand is expected to be transmitted to container ship owners in the Asian region. It is recommended to pay attention to the leading domestic trade container shipping companies that benefit from the elasticity of domestic demand recovery, as well as potential transshipment beneficiaries.
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