Important events and data forecast this week - Non-agricultural + PCE + Fed decision are on the agenda; the deadline for US reciprocal tariffs is approaching
1. Monday: ① Data: UK July CBI Retail Sales Difference; US July Dallas Fed Business Activity Index. ② Events: OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) held; Vice Premier He Lifeng went to Sweden to hold economic and trade talks with the US from July 27 to 30. 2. Tuesday: ① Data: UK Bank Mortgage License in June; US May FHFA House Price Index Monthly Rate, May S&P/CS 20-City Unadjusted House Price Index Annual Rate, June JOLTs Job Vacancies, July Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. ② Events: Domestic refined oil opens a new round of price adjustment window. ③ Financial reports: Boeing, Merck, Visa, Starbucks. 3. Wednesday: ① Data: API and EIA crude oil inventories in the United States for the week ending July 25; Australian CPI for June and the second quarter; France’s second quarter GDP annual rate preliminary value; Switzerland’s July KOF leading economic indicator, July ZEW investor confidence index; Germany’s second quarter unadjusted GDP annual rate preliminary value; Eurozone’s second quarter GDP annual rate preliminary value, July economic sentiment index; U.S. ADP employment in July, second quarter real GDP annualized quarterly rate preliminary value, real personal consumption expenditure quarterly rate preliminary value, core PCE price index annualized quarterly rate preliminary value, June existing home contract sales index monthly rate. ② Event: Bank of Canada interest rate decision. ③ Financial reports: HSBC Holdings, UBS, Meta, Microsoft, Robinhood, Qualcomm. 4. Thursday: ① Data: China’s official manufacturing PMI in July; Switzerland’s actual retail sales annual rate in June; France’s CPI monthly rate preliminary value in July; Germany’s seasonally adjusted unemployment and unemployment rate in July, and the CPI monthly rate preliminary value in July; Eurozone unemployment rate in June; US Challenger layoffs in July, initial claims in the week of July 26, June core PCE price index, June personal spending monthly rate, second quarter labor cost index quarterly rate, July Chicago PMI; Canada’s GDP monthly rate in May. ② Events: Federal Reserve interest rate decision; Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision and economic outlook report; ③ Financial reports: Apple, Amazon. 5. Friday: ① Data: Japan's unemployment rate in June; China's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in July; UK's Nationwide House Price Index monthly rate in July; Eurozone, France, Germany, UK, US manufacturing PMI final values in July; Eurozone CPI preliminary value in July; US non-farm payrolls in July, ISM manufacturing PMI in July, University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index final values in July, final values of one-year inflation rate expectations in July, and construction expenditure monthly rate in June. ② Events: Implementation of Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Ordinance"; US "reciprocal tariffs" began to be implemented, and a 50% import copper tariff took effect. ③ Financial reports: ExxonMobil, Chevron. 6. Saturday: ① Data: Total number of oil rigs in the United States for the week ending August 1. ② Events: CFTC releases weekly position report.
